***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 23.1 22.4 -1.7 27.3 29.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 22.3 22.3 21.9 -2.1 23.1 25.3 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 22.6 22.5 22.3 -1.8 25.7 28.5 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.1 20.2 -1.7 26.1 29.0 15.7 17.1 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 22.9 22.8 20.7 -1.7 25.9 29.2 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.3 21.3 18.5 -1.4 30.2 33.5 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 21.9 21.9 21.8 -2.1 23.0 25.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 10.3 10.1 18.4 -2.0 24.3 27.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 22.2 22.1 21.5 -1.8 25.7 29.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.2 22.0 19.6 -1.8 25.7 29.2 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.7 22.6 20.4 -1.6 27.3 30.7 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.5 21.4 19.4 -1.8 26.1 29.4 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.6 22.6 19.7 -1.5 29.5 32.7 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 22.0 21.9 20.6 -2.2 22.7 26.0 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 23.6 23.7 22.2 -1.3 29.6 32.0 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.2 23.1 20.2 -1.5 28.9 32.0 23.5 24.9 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 21.5 21.6 21.4 -2.3 21.3 23.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 21.5 21.3 18.6 -2.0 24.5 28.1 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 21.9 21.9 22.0 -2.1 23.5 25.9 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 16.2 15.9 16.2 -2.3 21.1 24.6 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.6 22.4 22.1 -1.9 25.3 28.3 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 21.9 21.9 21.4 -2.3 21.1 23.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 22.3 22.3 21.9 -2.0 23.9 26.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 21.9 21.7 20.5 -2.0 24.5 27.9 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 22.5 22.6 21.1 -1.8 25.4 28.1 23.3 24.6 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 21.9 21.8 18.7 -1.8 25.6 29.0 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 22.1 22.2 21.7 -1.7 26.2 28.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.6 23.5 21.1 -1.4 28.7 31.5 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 16.4 16.2 17.6 -2.1 23.3 26.8 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 22.3 22.3 22.2 -2.0 24.4 26.8 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------