***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 23.4 24.0 -1.4 30.7 33.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 23.3 23.5 23.6 -1.7 28.2 31.0 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 23.2 23.6 23.9 -1.5 29.4 32.0 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 16.1 16.7 22.5 -1.3 31.2 33.1 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 23.7 24.3 22.4 -1.4 30.4 32.4 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 22.8 23.8 20.7 -0.8 38.6 38.7 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.2 23.6 -1.6 28.9 31.7 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.5 20.8 -1.2 32.3 34.1 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 23.0 23.5 22.7 -1.5 29.9 32.0 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 22.9 23.5 21.4 -1.4 30.5 32.5 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 23.8 24.4 22.0 -1.2 33.0 34.5 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.5 21.8 -1.0 34.7 35.9 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 24.0 24.9 21.3 -1.0 35.8 36.6 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 22.8 23.2 22.2 -1.7 27.7 30.6 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 24.4 25.1 23.3 -1.0 35.7 36.7 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 24.5 25.3 21.8 -1.1 34.7 35.8 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 22.8 22.9 23.3 -1.7 27.7 30.8 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 22.4 22.8 20.5 -1.5 29.0 31.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.0 23.7 -1.7 28.2 31.1 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 18.0 18.5 18.4 -1.5 29.1 31.6 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 22.8 23.5 23.5 -1.5 29.6 32.0 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.3 -1.7 27.5 30.7 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 23.1 23.3 23.6 -1.6 28.5 31.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.2 -1.6 28.7 31.2 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 23.3 23.8 22.5 -1.5 29.7 32.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 23.8 24.4 21.1 -1.1 34.3 35.5 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 23.2 23.6 23.1 -1.4 30.2 32.8 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 24.3 25.0 22.9 -1.1 34.0 35.3 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 17.5 17.9 19.5 -1.5 28.7 31.3 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 23.1 23.4 23.8 -1.6 28.9 31.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------