***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 25.3 25.3 -1.0 35.5 38.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.1 25.2 -1.1 34.7 37.3 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 24.6 25.1 25.4 -1.0 35.4 38.6 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 18.1 18.4 23.8 -1.1 33.4 37.0 18.4 19.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 25.0 25.4 23.7 -1.2 32.8 36.6 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.4 21.7 -0.8 38.4 41.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 24.3 24.8 25.1 -1.0 35.2 37.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.7 22.1 -0.9 36.1 39.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.7 24.0 -1.1 33.2 36.9 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.9 22.7 -1.0 34.8 38.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.8 25.4 23.3 -1.0 35.3 38.8 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.5 23.1 -0.9 36.5 39.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 25.0 25.5 22.5 -0.9 35.9 39.3 25.3 26.7 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 24.2 24.9 23.7 -1.0 36.0 39.1 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.1 26.8 24.6 -0.7 38.6 41.4 26.3 27.6 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.1 23.0 -1.0 35.5 38.9 25.9 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 23.9 24.4 24.8 -1.1 34.5 36.9 24.2 25.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 23.7 24.3 22.0 -1.0 35.5 38.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.0 24.6 25.3 -1.0 35.3 37.8 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 19.0 19.8 19.8 -0.9 36.2 39.4 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 24.6 25.0 24.8 -1.1 33.3 37.1 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.3 24.9 24.9 -1.0 35.8 37.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.4 25.0 25.1 -1.0 36.1 38.8 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.6 23.7 -1.0 35.7 38.9 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 24.8 25.3 23.7 -1.1 33.1 36.9 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.1 22.4 -1.0 35.1 38.6 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.0 24.4 -1.0 34.9 38.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.2 26.5 24.2 -0.9 36.0 39.2 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.7 19.5 21.0 -0.9 36.3 39.4 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 24.4 24.9 25.3 -1.0 35.1 37.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------