***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 25.1 26.0 -1.1 33.7 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 24.3 24.7 25.9 -1.2 32.0 36.9 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.9 26.1 -1.1 33.9 38.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 17.4 18.2 24.5 -1.1 33.6 37.7 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 24.4 25.3 24.4 -1.1 33.6 37.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 23.5 24.7 22.4 -0.6 40.7 41.8 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 24.2 24.6 25.7 -1.2 31.6 36.7 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.9 22.7 -0.9 36.9 39.9 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 23.8 24.8 24.6 -1.1 33.6 38.0 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 24.0 25.0 23.3 -1.0 35.2 38.9 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 24.2 25.3 24.0 -0.9 37.0 40.0 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 23.6 24.7 23.8 -0.8 38.2 40.8 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 24.5 25.7 23.3 -0.7 39.0 41.0 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.7 24.3 -1.1 34.0 38.1 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 25.4 26.4 25.4 -0.8 37.9 40.4 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 25.0 26.2 23.8 -0.8 37.6 40.2 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 23.7 24.1 25.5 -1.3 30.2 35.9 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 23.3 24.2 22.5 -1.1 34.9 38.7 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 23.9 24.4 26.0 -1.1 33.5 37.8 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 19.0 19.9 20.4 -1.0 36.1 39.3 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.8 25.5 -1.2 32.9 37.6 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 24.0 24.5 25.6 -1.2 32.4 37.4 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 24.2 24.8 25.9 -1.0 35.0 38.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 23.7 24.5 24.2 -1.1 34.5 38.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 24.2 24.9 24.5 -1.2 32.2 37.2 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 24.3 25.4 23.3 -0.7 39.7 41.6 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.6 25.1 -1.1 32.9 37.7 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 25.2 26.2 24.9 -0.9 36.0 39.1 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.7 19.5 21.5 -1.0 35.8 39.4 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.1 24.7 26.1 -1.2 32.8 37.4 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------