***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 26.5 17.6 139.1 75.2 60.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.8 30.7 18.0 137.3 74.7 60.0 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 31.3 35.5 17.2 138.2 74.9 60.6 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.7 29.6 17.3 118.7 70.8 58.6 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.4 25.0 17.4 123.7 71.6 59.2 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.7 21.4 22.8 112.6 67.8 54.4 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 23.1 26.3 18.5 136.3 74.4 60.8 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.4 33.4 16.6 107.2 66.0 55.2 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 24.4 27.0 17.7 132.9 73.8 60.7 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.8 22.5 18.5 121.2 70.3 58.5 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 21.0 14.8 114.1 68.7 55.2 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.9 17.7 13.7 105.1 65.9 53.6 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.0 19.9 18.0 107.0 66.0 52.8 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 35.0 38.1 20.3 133.8 73.8 57.7 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 20.6 14.6 110.4 68.6 55.7 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 16.8 16.6 110.1 67.3 53.5 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 36.7 18.4 143.0 76.0 61.3 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.8 27.6 21.3 123.1 70.7 59.2 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 21.1 35.4 17.9 140.0 75.3 59.7 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 20.3 21.5 105.1 64.8 56.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 25.1 28.4 16.2 136.3 74.5 59.9 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 29.3 35.2 18.5 145.6 76.6 60.5 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.0 28.0 18.2 140.5 75.4 59.5 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 29.8 31.8 19.6 131.6 73.2 59.4 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 28.0 31.1 20.4 133.3 73.8 61.0 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.3 14.7 14.5 101.3 64.7 51.4 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.5 33.6 20.7 137.5 74.8 61.6 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.2 16.1 114.7 69.7 56.0 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.7 30.2 21.1 117.9 69.0 57.7 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.0 30.6 17.8 136.1 74.4 60.0 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------