***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 37.5 19.0 163.5 80.0 65.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 25.5 30.7 18.0 150.5 77.8 62.9 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 32.8 43.2 17.5 148.7 77.3 63.5 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 30.0 39.3 19.5 163.9 80.3 66.7 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 22.9 32.7 20.3 174.1 82.0 67.4 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 21.8 26.1 25.0 143.7 76.3 61.5 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 21.8 27.9 18.8 154.1 78.6 62.6 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 27.9 31.9 19.8 140.9 75.6 62.6 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 25.6 35.3 20.3 171.3 81.4 66.9 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 30.6 37.6 21.2 149.4 77.3 64.5 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 20.8 28.3 17.5 163.9 80.2 63.7 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.1 24.7 16.3 152.8 78.1 61.6 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.9 23.0 19.6 147.6 77.1 61.1 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.0 29.8 19.1 130.6 72.8 60.7 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.3 18.0 14.6 134.7 74.2 60.4 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.5 21.2 18.6 160.1 79.6 62.6 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 25.3 31.4 18.4 152.9 78.3 62.5 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 26.5 29.8 23.0 136.4 74.5 63.2 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 29.7 35.8 17.0 145.5 76.6 62.4 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 26.5 28.3 24.3 130.3 72.8 61.6 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 23.3 30.4 18.3 169.7 81.0 65.4 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 23.6 28.7 17.4 150.1 77.7 62.8 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 24.4 28.3 16.1 139.5 75.2 61.1 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.0 34.2 19.8 135.9 74.3 62.4 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 25.9 32.8 22.6 166.4 80.6 67.9 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.8 22.2 15.6 129.5 72.8 57.5 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.3 32.7 22.0 161.3 79.7 66.4 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 19.8 24.8 17.2 152.8 78.0 63.5 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 35.9 38.2 22.8 131.6 73.1 62.1 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 29.5 38.4 18.1 151.6 78.0 63.4 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------