***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 30.5 17.5 148.3 77.2 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 24.3 24.3 13.5 116.7 70.3 57.4 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 26.0 28.8 16.0 132.9 74.1 61.2 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 22.8 25.6 16.4 132.1 73.9 59.1 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 16.7 27.2 16.2 129.4 73.1 58.6 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.9 19.9 20.4 107.3 66.1 52.6 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.7 26.9 14.5 124.2 72.2 58.8 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.3 31.0 15.5 113.5 68.4 54.9 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 24.4 16.7 129.7 73.1 59.3 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.8 28.8 17.3 120.4 70.6 58.1 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.7 22.7 13.6 118.4 70.5 55.7 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 15.3 12.5 113.6 68.8 52.8 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.8 15.3 108.1 67.1 51.9 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 32.5 32.8 18.1 117.5 70.2 59.4 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.7 13.2 114.8 70.3 55.0 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 17.4 14.6 115.8 69.5 53.8 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.8 19.2 11.7 107.9 68.0 53.9 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 22.5 19.6 117.8 69.6 58.6 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 24.6 13.5 114.8 69.8 57.5 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 19.6 18.9 108.0 65.9 54.6 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 23.3 26.4 15.9 138.8 75.2 60.9 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.5 10.7 94.9 64.0 51.4 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.2 22.7 14.6 117.3 70.5 58.7 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 35.7 36.8 18.2 122.2 71.2 60.0 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 23.4 28.5 20.1 152.8 78.0 62.4 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.2 15.0 10.9 95.1 62.4 46.9 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 27.3 33.0 20.2 153.7 78.2 62.4 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.8 16.5 14.9 122.5 71.7 56.3 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.1 27.9 18.9 113.4 68.2 57.5 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 20.8 22.1 15.0 126.2 72.5 59.4 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------