***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 108.7 74.7 142.0 78.5 67.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 80.5 101.8 70.4 136.5 76.7 65.0 62.2 75.5 89.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 111.1 125.7 71.7 136.2 76.5 66.3 63.4 83.4 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 101.3 109.0 73.5 128.3 73.0 64.8 62.4 79.7 98.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 86.3 94.1 75.5 133.5 75.6 66.2 54.4 68.2 83.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 74.8 81.6 86.8 111.1 64.7 57.2 56.4 69.2 82.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 71.7 101.8 72.8 137.7 77.2 66.0 47.6 64.8 83.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 111.2 118.3 70.7 110.2 63.9 56.1 87.5 103.7 120.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 85.1 94.5 77.3 135.3 76.8 66.8 55.7 68.6 82.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 86.7 101.3 78.5 120.7 70.0 61.2 64.9 80.2 96.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 71.3 82.9 63.7 121.2 70.1 60.0 53.1 65.6 78.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 63.0 69.5 58.9 111.9 65.1 55.9 44.2 56.7 70.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 66.5 74.7 71.9 112.3 65.5 57.3 49.5 61.8 74.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 106.3 122.3 78.5 118.7 69.1 61.3 82.7 99.8 117.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 59.1 70.3 61.2 117.4 68.0 59.6 38.4 52.4 68.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 59.3 68.6 67.1 115.9 67.5 58.2 42.3 54.0 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 93.7 112.8 69.8 140.3 78.2 65.6 49.2 68.1 90.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 87.1 99.5 88.2 118.8 70.0 62.4 67.8 81.3 95.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 102.8 115.2 69.3 134.0 75.7 64.2 63.4 80.8 100.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 80.9 87.1 88.6 110.4 64.4 58.6 60.1 74.2 89.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 86.5 95.8 71.0 137.9 77.2 67.1 50.5 65.3 81.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 98.4 111.3 68.6 136.5 77.1 64.0 53.6 72.2 92.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 74.5 92.1 69.8 129.6 74.0 63.8 56.4 69.5 83.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 102.1 120.7 79.6 121.7 71.2 62.7 77.9 95.2 113.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 93.3 105.8 85.8 139.7 78.2 68.8 53.3 69.7 87.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 63.7 67.4 59.1 105.8 61.4 54.5 42.9 56.8 72.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 96.6 111.1 86.5 143.2 79.5 69.1 55.5 72.0 90.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 59.4 68.7 66.3 121.0 69.7 61.0 45.0 54.9 65.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 119.7 118.1 87.0 114.6 67.3 60.8 85.1 100.6 116.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 93.3 106.9 72.3 137.6 77.1 66.0 58.6 74.2 91.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------