***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 13.9 -0.2 45.7 46.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.5 13.2 -0.7 35.6 37.5 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.6 13.8 13.8 -0.3 43.0 43.9 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.3 11.7 0.3 56.0 54.9 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 0.1 53.3 52.8 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.3 9.9 0.6 64.5 62.1 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.7 13.3 -0.7 35.5 37.4 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.1 9.1 -0.3 43.8 44.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.8 12.3 0.0 49.5 49.7 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.6 10.2 -0.2 45.7 46.3 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.5 11.8 0.1 53.7 53.1 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.9 9.8 10.5 0.1 52.5 52.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 10.9 0.4 60.4 59.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.0 11.4 -0.6 38.1 39.5 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 0.8 69.2 66.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.3 11.5 0.3 58.0 57.0 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 11.5 11.8 12.9 -0.9 33.2 35.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.8 9.4 -0.5 40.0 41.5 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.7 13.3 -0.7 36.5 38.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.9 7.6 -0.4 42.2 43.0 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.8 13.4 0.0 49.7 49.9 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.9 -0.9 31.8 34.0 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.4 13.2 -0.6 37.8 39.4 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.4 11.6 -0.5 39.9 41.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.1 13.3 0.1 51.3 51.0 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.8 9.8 0.3 56.4 55.6 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 13.6 -0.1 48.3 48.5 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.4 12.5 0.6 63.5 61.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.1 8.6 -0.5 38.4 39.9 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.9 13.6 -0.6 38.3 39.8 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------