***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 12.5 13.1 14.5 -0.5 40.4 43.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.1 14.2 -0.6 38.9 42.5 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.7 14.6 -0.5 40.7 44.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.1 12.3 -0.2 45.5 47.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.7 12.4 -0.4 41.8 45.2 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.9 10.2 0.0 49.2 49.9 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.2 14.2 -0.7 38.1 42.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.4 9.8 -0.3 43.8 47.0 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.5 12.4 -0.6 38.6 43.1 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.6 10.7 -0.4 41.0 45.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.5 11.9 -0.3 44.4 46.9 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.9 10.9 -0.2 46.7 48.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.0 10.6 -0.5 40.1 43.9 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 12.6 12.8 11.9 -0.9 31.4 37.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.8 14.0 0.0 50.5 50.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.9 11.4 -0.3 43.9 46.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.4 14.0 -0.6 39.0 42.8 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.1 9.9 -0.7 36.4 41.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.3 -0.6 39.7 43.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 7.0 7.9 -0.6 37.6 42.8 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.6 13.7 -0.6 38.6 43.0 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.7 14.0 -0.7 37.4 41.6 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 12.3 12.8 14.2 -0.5 40.1 44.0 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.0 -0.8 34.6 40.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.9 13.4 -0.5 41.3 44.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.4 9.9 -0.5 39.2 43.3 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.2 13.0 13.9 -0.5 40.4 43.9 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.0 12.8 -0.1 48.4 49.5 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.1 -0.6 36.2 41.7 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.5 14.5 -0.6 39.6 43.1 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------