***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 16.5 0.7 61.2 59.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.9 16.3 0.5 58.9 56.8 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.9 16.7 0.7 62.5 59.8 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.6 14.3 1.0 68.1 64.0 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.1 13.8 14.0 0.7 63.3 60.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.9 12.1 1.0 69.6 64.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.0 16.3 0.5 58.3 56.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.4 11.5 0.6 62.1 59.2 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.2 14.8 14.1 0.6 61.8 59.1 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.6 12.4 0.6 61.4 58.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.6 13.4 0.8 65.1 61.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.5 12.5 0.7 64.8 61.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.0 12.0 0.7 62.7 60.2 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.9 13.8 0.2 54.8 53.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.2 15.7 1.2 71.7 66.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.2 13.0 0.9 67.0 63.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.4 16.2 0.5 58.9 56.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.1 11.5 0.5 60.0 57.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.0 16.3 0.6 59.9 57.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.7 9.2 0.3 57.5 56.2 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.2 14.8 15.5 0.6 61.8 59.5 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.5 15.9 0.4 57.8 55.5 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.6 16.1 0.5 59.9 57.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.7 13.7 0.5 59.7 57.5 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.1 14.7 15.0 0.7 61.8 59.9 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.5 11.8 0.7 63.8 61.1 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 15.3 14.8 15.8 0.6 61.1 59.3 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 1.2 71.2 65.9 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.3 10.8 0.4 58.0 56.2 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.3 16.5 0.6 59.5 57.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------