***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.1 15.6 0.2 57.0 55.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.8 15.3 0.0 51.3 50.7 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 15.7 0.2 57.2 54.9 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.1 13.3 0.6 67.2 62.6 9.8 10.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.5 13.4 0.4 61.9 58.6 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 11.6 11.7 11.3 0.6 72.3 66.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.9 15.3 0.0 50.5 50.1 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.1 10.7 0.2 57.4 55.3 5.4 5.9 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.5 13.5 0.3 58.5 56.0 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.3 11.7 0.2 56.8 54.8 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.3 12.9 0.4 64.4 60.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.4 11.8 0.4 64.6 60.6 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.9 11.6 0.4 63.9 60.5 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.7 13.0 -0.1 45.5 45.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 14.9 15.0 15.0 0.8 75.5 69.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.9 13.9 12.4 0.5 67.6 63.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.1 15.1 0.0 50.3 50.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.8 10.8 0.0 51.0 50.3 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 15.3 0.1 52.5 51.5 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.6 8.7 0.0 49.7 49.5 7.1 7.6 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.5 14.8 0.3 58.5 56.0 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.3 14.9 -0.1 47.9 48.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.4 15.1 0.1 53.2 51.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 13.0 0.0 51.1 50.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.5 14.4 0.3 59.1 56.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 11.0 0.4 63.3 60.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.7 15.0 0.3 57.7 55.7 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.8 13.9 0.7 73.1 67.2 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 10.0 -0.1 48.0 48.0 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.0 15.5 0.1 52.9 51.9 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------