***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 22.1 22.4 22.5 -1.4 28.4 30.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 22.1 21.9 21.8 -2.4 19.2 22.3 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 22.3 22.7 22.4 -1.7 27.4 29.6 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.8 20.5 -0.2 46.6 46.4 15.7 17.1 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.9 21.3 -0.7 39.3 40.5 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.5 19.9 0.4 56.9 54.8 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 21.7 21.6 21.9 -2.3 19.6 22.7 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 10.3 11.1 18.6 -1.0 34.8 36.6 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.3 23.2 22.1 -0.8 38.0 39.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.1 23.0 20.0 -0.9 37.5 38.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.8 23.9 21.8 -0.5 42.6 43.1 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.7 22.6 20.1 -0.6 40.5 41.4 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.3 21.6 0.0 49.3 49.0 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 21.9 22.0 20.7 -2.0 24.3 26.8 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.6 23.7 0.4 57.5 55.2 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.9 21.5 -0.1 49.2 48.7 23.5 24.9 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 21.5 21.1 21.4 -2.6 17.5 21.0 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 21.5 21.9 18.6 -1.4 30.6 32.7 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 21.6 21.6 21.9 -2.2 21.3 24.1 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 16.4 16.8 16.4 -1.5 29.7 32.1 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.4 23.1 22.6 -1.2 32.4 34.3 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 21.6 21.4 21.2 -2.6 17.4 20.8 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 22.1 22.3 22.0 -1.9 24.6 27.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 21.8 22.1 20.9 -1.6 28.5 30.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 22.8 23.3 21.7 -1.1 33.0 35.0 23.3 24.6 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.7 19.7 -0.1 48.0 47.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.5 22.0 -1.4 29.2 31.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.5 22.1 0.4 56.6 54.5 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 16.4 16.8 17.7 -1.6 29.3 31.6 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 22.0 22.0 22.1 -2.1 21.6 24.5 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------