***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 27.4 27.7 26.7 0.7 59.4 57.2 25.4 26.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.1 26.7 0.7 59.5 56.5 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.4 27.1 1.0 61.9 58.5 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.2 21.1 25.1 1.4 67.5 62.5 18.4 19.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.1 25.3 1.1 64.0 60.1 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.7 26.6 23.0 1.3 66.4 62.3 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.7 26.7 0.7 59.1 56.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.7 23.2 0.7 59.2 56.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.8 27.3 25.5 1.1 63.5 59.7 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 24.1 0.9 61.0 57.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.1 27.9 25.1 1.2 65.3 61.0 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.9 24.8 1.2 65.0 60.8 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.2 28.1 24.0 1.4 66.3 62.4 25.3 26.7 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.4 24.5 0.3 53.6 52.3 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 28.9 29.2 26.4 1.7 72.3 66.2 26.3 27.6 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 27.8 29.0 24.9 1.6 68.9 63.9 25.9 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.5 26.7 0.8 60.7 57.2 24.2 25.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 23.2 0.7 58.2 55.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.6 26.8 0.8 60.0 56.7 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.7 21.4 20.4 0.3 53.9 52.6 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.3 26.3 0.9 61.1 58.1 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.8 26.4 0.7 58.6 55.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.0 26.8 0.8 60.2 56.9 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.4 24.8 0.7 58.2 55.8 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.4 25.0 0.7 59.2 57.1 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 27.7 28.1 24.5 1.8 71.4 66.3 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.9 25.8 0.7 59.2 57.1 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 28.9 29.3 25.7 1.7 71.6 65.5 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 21.2 22.0 0.4 55.1 53.6 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.8 26.8 0.7 59.5 56.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------