***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 28.5 28.1 27.5 1.0 64.1 60.2 25.7 27.0 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 28.1 27.4 27.5 0.9 62.1 58.7 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 28.1 27.8 28.0 1.2 66.6 61.2 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.3 21.5 26.0 1.6 72.5 64.7 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 28.6 28.4 26.1 1.3 68.4 62.4 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 27.1 27.2 23.8 1.4 71.4 64.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 27.9 27.3 27.5 0.9 61.9 58.8 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.7 16.2 24.2 1.1 65.5 60.7 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 28.1 27.9 26.3 1.3 68.1 62.2 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 27.9 27.6 24.9 1.2 66.4 61.1 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.3 26.0 1.4 70.3 63.4 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 27.4 27.4 25.8 1.5 71.3 64.2 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 28.4 28.5 24.9 1.5 71.5 64.5 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.2 26.9 25.3 0.6 58.3 56.3 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.1 27.4 2.0 78.6 68.3 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 29.2 29.4 25.7 1.7 73.7 65.4 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 24.1 26.9 27.4 0.9 61.7 58.3 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 27.3 26.7 24.1 1.0 63.5 59.6 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 27.7 27.0 27.6 1.0 63.2 59.2 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 19.3 21.8 21.3 0.6 58.6 57.0 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 28.2 27.8 27.1 1.1 65.7 60.8 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.2 27.1 27.0 0.7 59.8 57.1 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 28.0 27.5 27.6 1.1 64.4 59.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 27.6 27.0 25.7 1.0 63.5 59.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 28.3 27.8 25.8 1.0 64.2 60.3 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 27.8 28.3 25.4 1.9 76.2 67.9 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.3 26.7 1.0 64.3 60.6 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 29.3 29.9 26.6 1.9 76.4 66.7 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 22.6 21.8 23.0 0.7 60.6 58.1 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 28.0 27.4 27.5 0.9 63.0 59.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------