***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.1 25.6 0.2 54.5 53.3 24.9 25.8 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.6 25.4 -0.1 47.6 48.1 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.0 25.8 0.3 56.1 54.0 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 19.5 19.6 23.7 1.0 71.9 65.3 17.9 18.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.8 24.2 0.7 65.2 60.6 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.7 22.1 1.1 75.3 68.5 23.8 24.6 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.3 25.3 -0.1 47.7 48.2 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.3 21.9 0.4 59.4 56.3 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.1 24.7 0.7 64.2 59.8 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.8 23.0 0.6 62.0 58.2 24.6 25.3 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 26.7 26.6 24.3 0.9 68.4 62.8 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.6 23.5 0.9 68.6 62.8 24.1 24.8 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 26.8 26.9 23.5 1.1 72.8 66.4 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.3 23.6 -0.2 46.0 46.8 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 27.4 27.9 25.8 1.4 79.6 71.8 25.8 26.5 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 27.5 27.7 24.0 1.2 75.1 67.9 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.0 25.2 -0.1 47.5 48.2 24.2 25.1 25.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.0 22.0 0.3 55.6 53.9 24.0 24.8 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.2 25.5 0.0 50.0 49.7 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.2 19.4 0.0 50.4 50.2 19.4 20.2 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.1 25.4 0.4 58.4 55.7 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.3 24.9 -0.2 45.7 46.9 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.7 25.5 0.2 53.3 51.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.2 23.9 0.2 53.9 52.5 24.3 25.0 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.1 24.2 0.3 56.6 54.8 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.6 23.1 1.3 77.3 69.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.6 24.8 0.2 54.9 53.7 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 27.4 27.8 24.7 1.4 79.4 71.2 25.8 26.5 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.0 21.0 0.1 51.7 51.2 19.2 20.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.5 25.5 0.0 49.5 49.3 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------