***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 18.1 21.3 25.1 140.5 75.4 67.1 5.3 9.8 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 20.0 27.5 25.6 160.1 79.8 73.0 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 14.3 22.3 23.2 129.3 72.5 64.6 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 16.7 20.0 22.1 105.6 64.0 55.0 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.8 19.6 93.5 60.4 51.5 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.9 21.9 96.1 59.6 49.6 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 18.6 25.3 26.4 162.2 80.2 73.4 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.8 24.3 93.2 57.3 48.9 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.0 13.3 19.9 96.2 61.0 53.2 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.4 23.6 88.7 55.9 48.1 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 19.4 90.9 59.2 48.5 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.4 18.6 89.6 56.9 47.7 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.3 13.5 18.4 86.3 57.1 45.3 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 20.8 30.5 28.3 117.9 68.6 60.8 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 11.6 18.1 23.4 124.1 70.8 60.4 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.1 18.0 90.6 58.9 48.1 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 20.1 30.6 28.1 179.5 83.6 76.3 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.7 19.3 25.9 95.2 58.3 51.5 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 19.8 25.3 24.4 146.8 76.8 69.7 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 19.3 26.6 100.9 60.6 52.7 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.3 15.5 21.8 111.1 66.7 58.0 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 24.8 34.3 26.3 165.0 80.6 73.6 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 48 52 100 17.1 20.4 23.7 133.3 73.5 66.1 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.7 22.2 24.2 105.5 63.6 55.4 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.5 19.5 26.0 129.9 72.6 62.9 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.5 12.0 17.1 90.1 57.6 47.6 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 15.8 19.1 27.2 143.2 76.1 67.5 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.4 15.3 20.9 99.5 62.9 52.7 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.6 25.6 94.7 57.9 50.8 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 19.2 23.8 24.6 149.6 77.6 70.5 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------