***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 7.1 12.8 10.8 56.4 42.6 32.3 8.9 16.2 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 8.5 12.1 9.5 54.1 40.9 31.7 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 8.2 11.1 9.6 47.8 36.1 29.2 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 6.6 9.3 10.4 49.4 35.9 27.8 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 6.7 8.2 8.9 43.9 33.7 27.7 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 6.3 7.0 12.2 48.8 31.0 27.1 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 6.9 11.5 10.1 60.3 44.6 34.1 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 14.5 17.1 9.9 45.8 32.4 26.5 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.4 43.5 30.1 25.7 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 7.3 8.9 10.1 45.5 33.9 28.3 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 5.5 6.6 9.5 46.0 33.9 28.0 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 4.8 5.9 9.5 47.6 34.3 27.2 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 6.4 9.2 11.3 53.4 40.4 31.8 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 10.0 11.0 10.6 43.8 30.9 26.5 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 4.8 8.6 10.1 53.5 42.7 31.3 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.8 10.3 48.9 36.2 29.2 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 8.4 14.1 9.4 57.3 44.3 33.1 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 9.7 9.5 8.6 35.8 23.6 21.5 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 7.5 10.9 9.4 52.2 39.6 31.2 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.5 9.8 12.6 56.7 38.0 32.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 5.8 8.0 9.4 46.0 34.3 27.2 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 9.0 15.1 10.4 63.0 46.9 35.9 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 5.9 7.9 9.2 47.4 36.0 29.4 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 11.3 11.7 9.2 39.8 27.4 24.4 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 7.0 11.4 11.8 55.8 40.1 30.7 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 4.1 5.9 11.5 56.4 37.4 30.5 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 7.0 11.8 12.0 58.1 42.0 32.4 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 4.7 6.6 9.6 48.4 37.6 28.4 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.1 45.0 28.9 26.4 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 9.7 13.9 9.9 54.5 40.9 32.1 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------