***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.8 21.4 18.9 114.7 68.7 54.1 5.7 11.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.1 23.6 15.8 110.1 67.0 51.1 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.7 32.8 19.2 116.6 69.2 53.1 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.4 33.5 22.7 139.5 75.2 58.0 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.4 22.1 19.7 120.5 70.2 51.1 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.4 21.3 22.5 119.9 69.9 56.0 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 19.8 14.8 107.1 66.3 51.0 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 28.6 28.2 21.1 124.0 71.0 54.1 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.1 22.5 20.1 114.0 67.9 50.4 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.9 29.7 22.5 120.4 69.8 53.2 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.7 22.2 17.9 126.8 72.0 53.2 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.9 19.7 18.1 122.0 70.6 53.1 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.5 18.3 20.1 119.0 69.8 54.3 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.2 23.5 21.3 102.6 64.0 49.7 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.3 19.1 19.3 141.7 75.8 60.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.1 19.0 121.7 70.6 53.6 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.3 21.4 14.3 103.7 65.2 49.5 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.9 25.6 24.6 119.2 69.2 54.2 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.8 27.8 16.7 110.9 67.5 51.2 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 26.4 23.0 123.2 70.6 55.8 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.5 22.0 20.0 120.2 70.0 53.0 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.4 21.4 16.1 106.0 66.0 50.1 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.7 22.1 17.3 108.9 67.0 50.7 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.7 30.0 22.9 119.6 69.5 53.6 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 25.4 25.8 22.1 124.5 71.5 57.1 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.4 17.8 16.1 108.3 66.9 53.1 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.5 23.1 20.3 115.0 68.9 55.4 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 19.3 22.0 21.0 137.0 74.6 58.7 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 35.9 35.3 25.2 121.7 70.0 55.6 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.5 28.3 17.0 113.9 68.2 52.6 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------