***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 22.8 18.2 120.6 70.5 55.2 5.9 11.5 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 24.5 27.9 16.8 137.2 74.7 57.8 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.6 27.0 19.2 126.8 72.2 54.8 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.2 21.7 17.7 117.8 69.6 56.3 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 24.1 17.5 119.0 69.9 55.7 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 25.2 22.5 131.2 73.0 57.0 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.7 27.9 16.6 131.2 73.2 57.6 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.1 37.3 22.7 134.1 73.8 57.2 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 21.9 19.5 118.5 69.8 55.2 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.7 30.9 24.2 129.4 72.6 56.5 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.5 25.0 17.2 130.7 73.0 55.6 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.2 18.9 18.2 138.9 75.0 56.9 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.4 24.7 20.1 143.8 76.2 57.8 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.4 33.0 24.0 121.1 70.4 55.1 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 14.2 15.3 114.3 69.4 52.6 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.7 20.9 18.3 136.8 74.6 56.8 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.5 24.8 16.2 145.0 76.5 60.0 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 25.3 27.5 130.6 72.9 57.1 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 6.8 28.7 17.7 135.9 74.4 57.2 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.4 24.0 25.8 132.8 73.4 58.1 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.8 23.0 19.0 122.2 70.9 54.9 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 21.9 24.9 17.2 140.5 75.5 60.4 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.0 24.8 18.7 132.6 73.6 55.7 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.6 37.3 23.5 125.7 71.6 55.6 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 20.2 18.3 112.2 67.7 55.0 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 23.3 16.3 143.2 76.1 56.2 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 19.0 25.2 18.7 114.6 68.6 55.1 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.7 16.8 18.6 126.0 72.1 55.6 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 32.6 27.2 129.8 72.6 57.6 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.3 21.9 17.1 127.7 72.3 55.9 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------