***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 75.7 82.1 73.0 106.5 61.8 56.3 46.9 66.2 88.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 81.6 89.4 67.7 112.7 65.6 58.4 62.2 75.5 89.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 93.9 95.5 71.2 102.1 58.8 52.9 63.4 83.4 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 88.1 87.6 72.9 99.5 57.2 53.0 62.4 79.7 98.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 74.9 68.5 65.8 90.8 50.7 46.3 54.4 68.2 83.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 75.0 70.6 79.1 94.4 51.8 48.6 56.4 69.2 82.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 73.3 84.1 67.9 114.0 66.5 59.4 47.6 64.8 83.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 111.6 106.5 77.9 95.1 52.7 47.4 87.5 103.7 120.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 75.2 68.1 69.1 90.2 49.4 44.9 55.7 68.6 82.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 88.0 81.1 80.4 92.8 51.0 45.9 64.9 80.2 96.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 71.8 66.8 64.0 92.2 51.5 47.0 53.1 65.6 78.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 63.3 58.6 64.3 93.6 52.5 47.1 44.2 56.7 70.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 67.8 64.7 69.9 95.3 53.7 48.3 49.5 61.8 74.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 81.3 102.0 84.2 94.6 52.1 47.0 82.7 99.8 117.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 58.7 63.3 68.0 105.4 61.6 56.3 38.4 52.4 68.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 60.0 56.1 65.7 93.7 52.7 47.7 42.3 54.0 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 76.5 95.3 68.0 119.1 69.3 61.0 49.2 68.1 90.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 87.9 81.3 86.6 92.8 50.0 44.7 67.8 81.3 95.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 89.7 96.4 68.2 108.7 63.1 56.1 63.4 80.8 100.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 80.9 80.2 88.0 101.5 57.2 50.8 60.1 74.2 89.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 72.9 69.9 70.3 97.1 55.1 50.2 50.5 65.3 81.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 80.8 95.8 70.0 116.7 68.0 59.7 53.6 72.2 92.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 76.1 77.0 68.8 102.5 58.9 52.4 56.4 69.5 83.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 103.5 98.0 79.8 95.0 52.4 47.0 77.9 95.2 113.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 77.2 80.7 78.2 103.9 60.1 54.9 53.3 69.7 87.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 63.7 58.7 61.0 93.2 52.3 47.2 42.9 56.8 72.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 80.3 84.7 78.2 106.3 61.6 55.9 55.5 72.0 90.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 59.4 59.5 70.0 98.9 57.2 52.3 45.0 54.9 65.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 108.2 102.2 89.2 95.4 51.7 46.0 85.1 100.6 116.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 82.0 88.5 68.5 109.0 63.3 56.8 58.6 74.2 91.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------