***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 13.2 15.0 -0.8 26.4 30.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.3 -0.6 34.1 37.0 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.6 14.5 14.9 -0.9 25.7 29.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 9.5 9.5 13.0 -0.8 24.6 28.6 9.9 10.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.9 -0.8 23.6 27.8 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.9 -0.7 24.1 28.2 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.3 -0.6 33.5 36.4 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.3 5.2 10.9 -0.8 23.4 27.6 5.5 6.0 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.7 13.2 -0.8 23.3 27.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.5 11.7 -0.8 24.2 28.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.3 12.3 -0.8 23.2 27.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 10.5 10.4 11.6 -0.9 21.0 25.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 11.9 11.9 11.4 -0.8 22.1 26.4 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.2 13.3 -0.8 26.2 30.2 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.6 13.7 -0.8 24.9 28.9 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 12.6 12.6 12.0 -0.8 22.7 27.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.5 13.9 15.3 -0.3 40.3 42.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.1 11.1 -0.8 25.8 29.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.2 -0.6 32.5 35.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 7.0 7.1 9.1 -0.7 26.5 30.3 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.6 14.2 -0.9 23.0 27.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.2 -0.4 38.8 41.0 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.9 -0.7 29.6 33.2 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.0 -0.8 25.3 29.3 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.7 12.7 13.7 -0.8 26.6 30.6 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.4 11.4 -0.8 22.7 26.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.4 -0.8 27.5 31.3 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.7 13.2 -0.8 23.3 27.3 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.5 10.3 -0.7 26.6 30.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.3 -0.7 30.8 34.2 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------