***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 11.9 12.7 -1.8 19.6 21.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.0 13.1 -1.3 26.4 28.0 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 12.4 12.4 12.7 -1.7 21.0 22.4 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 7.1 7.1 10.7 -1.5 20.7 22.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 9.4 9.3 10.9 -1.5 19.4 21.3 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 8.5 8.4 8.7 -1.6 18.2 20.0 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 11.1 11.1 13.1 -1.5 24.5 26.2 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.7 2.5 8.3 -1.7 17.0 19.3 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 10.5 10.5 11.2 -1.7 17.6 19.1 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 10.5 10.4 9.5 -1.6 18.4 20.2 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 10.1 10.0 10.2 -1.6 18.0 19.9 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.0 -1.8 14.9 17.4 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 9.7 9.6 9.4 -1.5 17.2 19.3 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.4 -1.4 22.8 24.1 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 11.5 11.4 12.1 -1.6 17.6 19.4 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.0 -1.5 18.1 20.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.0 -1.2 29.0 30.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 9.1 9.1 8.8 -1.5 20.8 22.5 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.2 13.0 -1.4 25.8 27.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 5.1 5.0 6.5 -1.5 20.4 22.6 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 10.4 10.4 12.2 -1.8 17.6 19.2 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.1 13.0 -1.2 28.8 30.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.8 -1.4 24.5 25.8 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 10.6 10.6 11.1 -1.5 22.3 23.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 10.4 10.4 11.7 -1.7 20.1 22.1 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 9.1 8.9 8.7 -1.6 15.6 18.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 10.3 10.2 12.2 -1.7 20.1 22.1 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 9.5 9.5 11.2 -1.6 18.5 20.1 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 7.1 7.0 8.0 -1.5 21.0 23.1 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 11.2 11.1 13.1 -1.5 24.1 25.7 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------