***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 12.8 14.6 -1.1 28.6 32.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.0 15.0 -0.8 34.5 37.1 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.1 14.1 14.5 -1.1 27.4 32.1 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 8.9 8.9 12.5 -1.1 26.0 31.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.2 12.3 -1.1 26.5 31.5 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 10.1 10.3 10.5 -0.9 28.9 32.7 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.9 -0.8 34.2 36.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.6 4.8 10.7 -0.9 30.4 34.5 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.2 12.7 -1.1 26.4 31.5 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 12.1 12.2 11.4 -1.0 28.7 33.3 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.0 11.8 -1.0 28.0 32.8 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.3 11.4 -0.9 28.5 33.0 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 11.5 11.5 10.9 -0.9 27.0 31.3 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 12.8 12.8 12.9 -1.1 27.5 31.9 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 12.9 13.0 13.0 -1.1 25.9 31.3 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 12.2 12.3 11.5 -1.0 27.2 31.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.7 15.0 -0.5 39.9 41.3 13.4 14.2 15.1 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 10.8 10.9 10.8 -0.9 29.3 33.6 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.0 14.8 -0.9 33.1 36.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.0 9.0 -0.8 33.3 36.3 7.0 7.6 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.2 13.7 -1.1 26.0 31.1 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.9 14.9 -0.6 38.5 40.3 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.4 -1.0 29.8 33.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.1 12.6 -1.1 26.9 31.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.2 -1.0 27.7 32.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 11.1 11.1 11.1 -0.9 27.7 31.6 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.9 -1.0 28.9 32.8 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 11.2 11.2 12.6 -1.1 25.3 30.5 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.0 9.2 10.1 -0.9 31.6 35.0 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.9 -0.9 31.7 35.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------