***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 14.5 15.9 -0.4 42.5 43.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.1 14.0 16.2 -0.2 45.7 45.5 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.5 15.8 -0.5 41.2 42.2 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.6 14.0 -0.4 42.3 43.7 9.9 11.1 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.8 13.8 -0.4 42.1 43.5 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.6 12.0 -0.3 42.6 44.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.2 16.2 -0.3 45.4 45.4 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.4 6.2 12.0 -0.3 42.6 43.4 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.9 14.1 -0.4 42.7 43.9 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.6 12.7 -0.3 43.1 44.1 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.6 13.2 -0.4 42.0 43.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.8 -0.4 41.2 42.4 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.0 12.4 -0.4 41.6 43.3 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.1 14.1 -0.4 41.5 43.0 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.8 14.6 -0.3 43.4 44.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.8 13.0 -0.4 41.9 43.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 16.2 0.0 50.2 49.0 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.2 12.1 -0.3 42.8 44.0 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.1 16.1 -0.3 44.8 44.9 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.0 10.2 -0.3 42.7 43.6 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.7 15.1 -0.4 41.7 42.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 16.1 0.0 49.6 48.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.7 15.7 -0.4 43.1 43.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.6 13.9 -0.4 41.1 42.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 14.6 -0.3 43.5 44.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.9 12.5 12.6 -0.3 42.8 44.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.6 15.3 -0.3 43.5 43.9 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.8 14.2 -0.4 42.4 43.7 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.3 11.3 -0.3 42.9 44.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.2 16.2 -0.4 43.7 44.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------