***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 14.4 16.8 -0.1 47.4 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.6 17.1 0.1 51.9 49.3 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.8 16.6 -0.2 45.5 45.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.0 14.7 -0.3 44.2 45.8 10.2 11.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.6 14.4 -0.3 43.1 44.9 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.8 12.6 -0.2 45.1 46.3 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.7 17.1 0.1 52.4 50.0 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.7 6.6 12.5 -0.4 42.4 43.8 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.0 14.8 -0.3 44.0 45.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.8 13.3 -0.3 43.8 45.1 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 13.9 -0.3 42.7 44.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.6 13.4 -0.4 41.2 43.2 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.2 13.0 -0.3 42.8 44.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.4 14.9 -0.3 43.8 44.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 15.3 -0.2 46.3 47.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.9 13.6 -0.3 42.6 44.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.4 17.1 0.3 57.1 52.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.4 12.6 -0.3 43.9 45.0 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.5 17.0 0.0 50.2 48.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.2 10.7 -0.3 43.1 44.3 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.8 15.8 -0.3 44.2 45.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.3 16.9 0.2 55.0 50.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.6 16.6 -0.1 47.5 46.6 13.0 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.9 14.6 -0.3 43.8 44.6 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 15.4 -0.1 48.5 48.7 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 13.2 -0.2 45.6 46.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 16.1 -0.1 48.9 48.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.9 14.9 -0.3 43.4 45.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.7 11.8 -0.3 43.1 44.3 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.6 17.0 0.0 49.5 48.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------