***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 21.4 21.8 -2.5 17.3 19.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 22.0 21.9 22.3 -2.2 21.3 24.0 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 21.6 21.2 21.7 -2.8 16.3 18.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 14.2 13.5 19.1 -2.9 11.5 14.1 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 21.8 21.2 19.7 -2.9 13.1 15.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 20.1 19.1 16.9 -3.1 10.0 12.6 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 21.8 21.7 22.3 -2.1 22.4 24.9 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 9.5 8.9 17.4 -3.0 13.6 16.2 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 21.2 20.8 20.6 -2.8 15.0 17.5 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 21.3 20.8 18.6 -2.9 14.7 17.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 21.6 21.0 19.2 -3.0 12.8 15.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 20.6 19.9 18.2 -3.1 12.1 14.5 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 21.3 20.4 18.1 -3.3 10.6 13.0 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 21.6 21.3 20.5 -2.6 18.9 21.6 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 22.7 21.9 20.8 -2.8 10.3 13.1 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 21.9 21.1 18.8 -3.1 11.0 13.5 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.9 22.0 22.4 -1.7 27.1 29.5 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 20.7 20.3 17.8 -2.8 16.2 18.8 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 21.5 21.3 22.2 -2.3 20.2 22.9 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 15.8 15.2 15.5 -2.9 14.7 17.2 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 21.6 21.1 21.4 -2.9 15.1 17.6 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 22.3 22.4 22.4 -1.7 27.6 30.0 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 21.9 21.5 21.9 -2.5 19.0 21.7 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 21.1 20.7 20.0 -2.8 16.7 19.3 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 21.9 21.5 20.4 -2.7 15.6 18.1 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 21.0 20.0 17.3 -3.3 9.9 12.2 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 21.6 21.3 21.2 -2.5 17.8 20.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 22.6 21.8 19.7 -3.0 9.9 12.7 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 15.8 15.4 17.0 -2.8 16.8 19.3 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 21.8 21.5 22.2 -2.4 19.3 22.0 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------