***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 24.2 24.5 -1.1 34.2 36.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.6 24.6 24.8 -0.9 37.9 39.2 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.6 -1.2 33.6 35.8 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 16.5 16.9 22.6 -1.3 30.8 33.7 17.1 18.5 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 24.2 24.7 22.7 -1.2 32.5 34.9 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 23.0 23.4 20.3 -1.2 31.4 34.3 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.4 24.4 24.8 -0.8 38.7 39.7 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 12.3 12.7 20.9 -1.2 33.0 35.4 12.7 13.9 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 23.4 24.0 23.1 -1.2 33.4 35.6 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 23.4 24.0 21.8 -1.1 33.9 36.0 23.9 25.4 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 24.2 24.6 22.2 -1.2 32.5 35.0 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 23.1 23.4 21.7 -1.3 31.3 34.1 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.4 24.6 21.0 -1.3 30.7 33.7 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 23.3 24.2 23.1 -1.0 35.5 37.3 23.9 25.5 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 24.5 24.8 22.9 -1.4 29.2 32.5 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 24.9 25.2 21.7 -1.3 31.0 33.9 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.6 24.9 -0.5 42.9 43.2 23.7 25.2 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.5 21.1 -1.1 35.1 37.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 23.1 24.0 24.8 -0.9 36.9 38.5 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 18.5 19.1 18.8 -1.0 34.9 36.9 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 23.4 24.1 23.9 -1.2 32.9 35.1 24.1 25.7 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 23.6 24.9 24.8 -0.6 42.0 42.7 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.6 -1.0 35.8 37.5 24.0 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.7 22.9 -1.1 34.5 36.4 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.8 24.3 23.0 -1.1 33.3 35.5 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 24.1 24.3 20.9 -1.3 30.3 33.2 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 23.6 24.2 23.7 -1.1 34.8 36.6 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 24.6 24.9 22.6 -1.4 29.4 32.7 25.2 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 18.1 18.7 20.1 -1.0 35.8 37.5 18.5 20.0 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.8 -1.0 36.0 37.7 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------