***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 25.6 25.4 -0.9 39.6 40.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.5 25.7 -0.6 43.1 43.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.3 25.5 -0.9 40.3 41.2 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 18.6 23.7 -1.0 37.7 39.2 18.2 19.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.2 25.8 23.8 -0.9 39.6 40.7 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 23.5 24.3 21.6 -0.8 39.1 39.9 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.3 25.6 -0.6 43.3 43.9 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.1 22.2 -0.6 41.9 42.2 13.3 14.8 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.2 24.1 -0.8 40.7 41.5 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.4 25.2 22.9 -0.7 42.1 42.5 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.9 25.6 23.4 -0.8 40.4 41.1 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.0 24.7 23.0 -0.8 40.0 40.6 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 24.8 25.5 22.4 -0.9 38.2 39.1 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.1 24.0 -0.7 42.7 43.2 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 25.9 26.4 24.1 -1.0 36.3 38.1 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.2 23.0 -0.9 38.7 39.6 25.7 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.1 25.7 -0.3 46.6 46.7 24.0 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.8 24.7 22.2 -0.6 43.5 43.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.0 25.7 -0.7 42.8 43.4 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.5 20.3 20.0 -0.5 43.3 43.4 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.8 25.3 24.9 -0.9 39.6 40.6 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.2 25.5 25.6 -0.4 46.0 46.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.5 25.3 25.5 -0.7 42.6 43.2 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.0 24.8 23.9 -0.7 42.3 42.8 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.6 23.9 -0.9 39.1 40.4 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 24.3 25.1 22.4 -0.9 37.1 38.1 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.1 24.5 -0.9 39.9 41.0 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.9 26.4 23.9 -1.0 36.7 38.2 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 20.0 21.2 -0.5 44.0 44.0 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.1 25.7 -0.8 41.6 42.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------