***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 26.5 26.4 -0.6 42.4 43.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.6 26.1 26.8 -0.3 45.7 45.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 24.5 25.8 26.5 -0.6 41.9 42.4 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 17.8 18.9 24.6 -0.7 40.6 41.3 18.2 19.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.9 26.1 24.6 -0.6 41.1 41.7 25.3 26.9 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.2 22.4 -0.3 46.1 46.1 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.6 26.1 26.7 -0.3 46.4 45.8 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.5 22.8 -0.5 42.8 43.2 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.4 25.7 24.9 -0.6 41.6 42.1 24.8 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 24.5 25.7 23.6 -0.5 42.8 43.1 24.8 26.4 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.7 25.9 24.1 -0.6 41.8 42.3 25.1 26.6 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.1 23.7 -0.6 41.4 42.1 24.4 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 25.0 26.1 23.2 -0.6 42.1 42.8 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.7 24.7 -0.6 41.8 42.0 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 25.8 26.9 25.1 -0.6 41.2 41.8 26.2 27.7 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.4 26.7 23.8 -0.6 42.0 42.6 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 24.2 26.0 26.8 -0.1 49.2 47.6 24.5 26.0 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.7 25.1 22.8 -0.5 43.8 43.8 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.1 25.5 26.8 -0.4 44.6 44.3 24.5 26.0 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.8 20.7 -0.4 44.3 44.3 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 24.5 25.8 25.8 -0.7 40.9 41.7 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 24.2 26.1 26.6 -0.2 46.9 45.8 24.7 26.3 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 24.3 25.7 26.4 -0.5 43.2 43.2 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 24.1 25.4 24.6 -0.6 42.3 42.6 24.5 26.0 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 24.7 26.0 24.8 -0.6 41.7 42.5 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.6 25.6 23.1 -0.6 41.5 42.6 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.3 25.6 25.5 -0.5 42.9 43.4 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 25.7 26.9 24.8 -0.6 40.9 41.5 26.1 27.7 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.5 21.8 -0.4 44.2 44.2 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 24.5 25.9 26.7 -0.4 44.3 44.3 24.8 26.4 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------