***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 24.8 24.5 -1.3 25.7 29.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 24.6 24.8 24.9 -1.0 31.2 35.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 24.3 24.4 24.6 -1.4 24.9 29.1 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 17.4 17.3 22.5 -1.5 20.2 24.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 24.8 24.7 22.7 -1.4 21.8 25.8 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 23.4 23.3 20.3 -1.4 20.4 24.4 23.9 24.6 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.5 24.9 -0.9 32.2 35.7 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 12.9 12.9 20.8 -1.3 22.7 26.3 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 24.1 24.1 23.2 -1.4 23.4 27.4 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 24.2 24.2 21.7 -1.3 23.8 27.5 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 24.6 24.5 22.2 -1.4 21.8 25.6 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 23.6 23.6 21.6 -1.5 20.7 24.4 24.2 24.8 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 24.6 24.5 21.2 -1.5 19.3 23.2 25.2 25.9 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 24.2 24.3 23.1 -1.2 26.6 30.7 24.6 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 25.4 25.3 23.2 -1.4 19.4 23.9 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 25.1 25.0 21.8 -1.5 20.0 24.0 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 24.0 24.5 25.0 -0.6 37.5 40.3 24.3 25.1 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 23.7 23.7 21.0 -1.2 25.4 29.1 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.2 24.9 -1.1 29.7 33.8 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 19.1 19.1 18.8 -1.2 24.3 27.9 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 24.3 24.3 24.0 -1.4 23.0 27.2 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.8 -0.7 36.2 39.4 24.7 25.6 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 24.3 24.4 24.6 -1.2 28.0 32.3 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 23.8 23.9 22.8 -1.3 25.2 29.2 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 24.6 24.5 23.0 -1.3 23.8 27.9 25.0 25.9 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 24.3 24.1 20.9 -1.6 18.4 22.3 24.8 25.5 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.3 23.8 -1.2 26.2 30.1 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 25.4 25.2 22.8 -1.5 18.9 23.3 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 18.8 18.9 20.0 -1.2 26.0 29.6 19.2 20.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 24.3 24.5 24.9 -1.1 28.7 32.7 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------