***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 90.4 70.7 120.9 69.9 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 83.9 93.4 66.5 115.0 66.9 57.2 63.5 77.4 92.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 95.0 114.3 69.5 120.6 69.8 59.7 66.6 86.3 108.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 105.8 111.9 83.6 128.1 73.4 63.4 62.2 80.3 100.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 91.1 96.3 81.0 126.6 72.6 63.3 55.2 70.5 87.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 89.8 93.7 110.9 128.0 74.4 65.5 55.8 69.4 84.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 73.9 83.8 66.0 112.8 65.7 56.3 48.3 65.5 84.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 124.6 128.6 82.4 125.6 72.2 65.3 86.7 103.4 120.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 74.9 90.9 79.3 125.4 71.9 63.2 55.4 69.2 84.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 89.6 104.8 84.9 120.8 70.0 62.2 66.1 82.4 99.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 83.9 86.1 72.6 123.5 71.0 62.9 53.8 67.0 81.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 76.6 81.6 69.3 132.1 74.4 67.3 45.3 58.0 72.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 82.1 87.2 90.8 134.6 76.4 68.9 48.7 61.5 75.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 81.2 117.8 76.2 110.1 64.1 55.6 82.2 100.8 120.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 74.2 80.0 77.2 134.1 75.2 64.6 38.4 52.3 68.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 73.3 79.7 85.9 134.7 76.3 68.0 41.5 54.3 68.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 78.8 87.1 59.9 109.9 64.0 55.8 50.7 69.1 90.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 96.5 96.0 90.7 116.6 68.0 60.5 66.8 80.1 94.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 90.2 103.3 67.5 116.9 68.0 58.0 65.3 82.2 100.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 93.6 96.2 102.4 123.6 72.6 65.6 59.2 73.7 88.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 74.1 89.7 71.1 122.9 70.7 61.4 52.6 67.5 83.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 82.7 92.9 61.1 112.5 65.6 56.4 54.9 73.3 93.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 78.5 88.0 69.4 117.1 68.0 57.9 58.5 71.9 85.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 103.9 116.3 79.1 115.4 67.2 58.9 78.5 95.8 114.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 92.8 99.9 89.9 128.3 73.7 63.7 53.7 70.2 88.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 80.6 87.2 80.7 136.6 76.8 69.6 42.0 56.5 72.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 95.0 97.9 82.7 122.6 70.9 60.8 56.7 73.2 91.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 68.9 73.1 81.4 132.8 75.0 64.9 43.8 54.3 65.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 121.7 122.5 93.5 119.0 69.6 62.0 85.6 101.4 118.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 83.8 96.6 69.0 117.9 68.5 58.1 60.8 76.7 93.7 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------