***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 22.0 21.5 111.8 67.2 60.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.7 21.8 18.9 118.3 69.2 60.7 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 22.8 24.5 22.5 125.7 71.5 64.3 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 26.5 30.5 27.9 139.9 75.3 68.5 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 20.9 25.2 29.0 148.6 77.9 70.0 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 23.7 29.9 38.8 174.1 83.3 76.1 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.5 17.0 18.3 111.8 66.9 57.7 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 38.5 46.9 32.2 160.7 80.3 74.0 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 18.8 23.6 29.1 153.6 79.2 72.1 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 24.2 29.0 31.7 156.2 79.5 72.5 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 19.8 24.5 27.5 154.0 78.9 71.0 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 21.7 27.3 29.2 169.2 81.5 75.1 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 22.6 29.9 36.2 187.7 85.6 79.8 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 34.6 33.8 22.9 122.9 70.4 62.3 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 18.1 22.7 25.7 146.0 76.6 69.4 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 21.7 29.9 34.7 183.1 84.8 78.5 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.4 18.4 16.0 108.4 65.9 57.1 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 29.3 33.9 32.3 154.2 79.1 71.5 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 21.2 19.8 122.8 70.5 62.5 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 25.5 31.6 34.5 160.5 80.9 74.3 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 19.9 22.2 24.7 132.4 73.3 66.6 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.1 23.1 16.0 109.6 66.3 58.3 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 20.8 22.8 21.7 129.0 72.4 64.3 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 28.1 30.5 26.8 138.5 75.0 67.0 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 21.6 24.0 28.3 135.6 74.3 69.3 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 19.4 25.5 31.9 169.3 81.7 75.7 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.1 18.3 24.3 118.2 69.0 63.0 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 18.2 23.1 29.7 158.8 79.8 72.1 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 34.9 41.7 32.8 158.9 80.5 73.2 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.0 20.1 20.1 118.1 69.1 61.1 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------