***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 24.5 13.4 110.6 67.4 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.1 21.9 13.2 99.0 62.3 48.9 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 8.7 24.2 12.7 102.3 64.0 51.1 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.0 24.8 17.0 106.6 66.6 52.5 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.5 21.2 16.4 106.8 66.9 52.7 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.0 21.4 26.4 111.1 66.8 54.9 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 8.2 18.9 13.2 101.1 63.0 49.4 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.4 34.8 18.5 119.9 70.0 55.1 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.4 22.0 15.9 105.9 66.3 52.5 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.3 20.8 17.9 104.9 65.6 51.4 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.1 20.9 15.5 106.5 66.9 52.1 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.7 20.4 15.0 124.6 71.6 54.4 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 15.7 20.5 20.5 115.3 68.4 55.2 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.0 15.2 89.7 58.7 47.9 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.2 18.8 16.4 112.5 68.7 54.9 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.6 18.7 112.5 68.1 54.6 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.9 23.5 12.5 94.8 60.9 45.9 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.2 22.9 19.5 102.3 64.1 51.1 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.0 24.6 13.3 99.7 62.7 49.5 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.8 22.8 25.7 120.8 70.1 58.5 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.9 20.8 13.9 107.7 66.7 52.8 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.1 21.5 13.2 97.7 61.9 47.0 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.7 18.4 13.4 96.9 61.5 49.0 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.7 25.3 15.8 97.5 62.4 50.1 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.1 25.7 17.9 112.7 68.0 56.3 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.9 20.2 20.1 134.6 74.0 59.4 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.8 25.7 16.2 112.1 67.6 54.1 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.6 16.4 105.6 66.6 51.2 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.3 29.9 21.2 107.2 65.6 53.1 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.9 24.7 13.4 104.4 64.5 50.9 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------