***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 31.7 22.6 146.9 77.0 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.3 25.1 20.5 124.9 71.3 51.9 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.0 39.0 20.9 132.7 73.5 54.0 8.6 17.4 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.4 37.3 23.4 141.5 75.7 56.0 9.7 17.5 28.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.1 23.2 20.9 125.0 71.6 54.2 6.6 12.0 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.1 24.9 27.6 121.6 70.2 57.2 6.1 12.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 22.9 20.8 126.2 71.5 53.0 6.3 11.7 19.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.0 26.4 18.1 104.9 65.2 52.2 10.2 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.9 27.8 20.1 117.9 69.8 53.5 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.8 30.9 20.2 106.4 66.0 51.9 11.5 19.9 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.9 21.5 17.2 111.8 67.9 53.0 7.8 13.2 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.8 14.7 110.1 67.3 53.0 5.8 10.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.0 21.4 20.6 119.4 69.8 56.7 5.9 11.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.6 31.8 21.6 114.7 68.4 51.7 10.2 18.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 23.4 22.1 150.6 77.7 56.6 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 17.4 19.5 122.3 70.8 56.4 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.5 20.4 18.1 119.0 69.7 51.6 6.1 11.3 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 24.2 22.0 103.1 64.6 51.0 8.3 15.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.5 31.2 20.3 124.3 71.3 51.5 9.0 16.4 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 23.9 24.0 105.0 64.4 53.0 6.6 14.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.8 25.1 19.7 129.2 72.7 54.0 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.5 22.9 18.4 122.1 70.7 51.3 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.1 25.0 20.1 121.3 70.5 50.8 6.7 12.8 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.0 35.5 21.0 113.0 67.9 51.7 13.2 22.2 33.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.9 30.4 27.1 144.9 76.5 57.2 7.4 13.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.8 22.9 18.1 124.2 71.2 56.8 5.3 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.4 32.1 26.3 145.0 76.5 57.5 7.0 13.5 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.7 26.5 21.6 140.9 75.5 56.1 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 25.8 29.8 22.2 103.0 64.3 51.1 11.0 19.8 31.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.9 32.7 21.6 131.8 73.2 53.3 7.6 15.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------