***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.1 13.1 112.1 67.9 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.0 23.2 13.9 114.8 68.8 52.4 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.9 24.3 13.3 115.6 68.7 52.7 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.9 20.1 15.3 119.3 70.6 57.3 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.5 24.8 14.6 118.5 70.1 56.5 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 15.1 18.1 101.0 64.8 56.9 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 21.3 13.7 108.7 67.1 50.7 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 23.8 13.6 105.2 65.8 57.0 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.5 18.9 14.1 116.4 69.4 55.2 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.7 22.7 15.1 108.1 66.6 55.9 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.7 19.0 12.4 112.8 68.6 56.9 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.5 10.5 105.7 66.8 56.9 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.6 13.8 13.4 102.4 66.1 57.2 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.0 25.0 16.5 111.3 67.4 54.0 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 13.6 13.1 121.2 71.2 57.2 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.7 12.9 106.4 67.1 56.9 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.8 20.1 13.3 117.2 69.8 51.4 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.8 16.2 16.9 103.0 64.8 55.0 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.3 22.8 13.9 118.2 69.5 53.2 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 15.1 18.1 105.7 65.5 57.7 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.0 21.0 12.8 116.9 69.4 54.3 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.8 21.7 13.4 121.5 70.8 53.4 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.9 21.2 14.2 117.9 69.1 53.0 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.9 25.4 15.5 108.0 66.3 53.6 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.1 19.1 16.7 113.0 68.4 56.2 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.3 15.3 10.5 98.5 65.0 55.6 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.9 21.9 15.8 111.5 67.8 54.3 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.0 13.8 117.2 70.1 57.0 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.7 23.2 17.3 104.1 65.1 55.9 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.6 19.3 13.8 113.4 68.1 51.8 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------