***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 14.0 16.3 17.3 3.4 97.4 96.5 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.8 17.3 3.5 96.9 96.1 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 15.9 18.3 17.3 3.3 97.1 96.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 10.6 12.0 13.7 2.2 91.5 89.8 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.8 14.6 2.6 94.6 93.2 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.0 10.6 1.3 81.1 78.9 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.6 17.2 3.4 96.7 95.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 6.1 7.6 11.4 2.3 92.5 90.8 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.7 14.9 2.7 96.0 94.4 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 13.1 14.3 12.8 2.5 94.0 92.4 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 12.7 13.9 13.7 2.2 92.6 90.6 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 11.2 12.4 12.4 2.2 92.3 90.8 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 12.1 12.5 11.6 1.2 79.5 76.4 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 14.0 15.7 14.8 2.9 95.9 94.4 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 14.1 14.7 14.7 1.7 87.0 84.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 13.2 14.0 12.7 1.7 86.0 83.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.4 17.2 3.5 96.7 96.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 11.7 13.0 12.1 2.4 93.6 92.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 14.1 16.5 17.5 3.7 97.7 97.0 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 7.7 8.7 10.0 2.2 91.9 90.1 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.8 16.0 2.7 95.4 93.8 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 13.6 16.0 17.6 3.9 97.9 97.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 13.8 17.0 17.7 4.1 98.8 98.3 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 13.4 15.1 14.7 2.8 95.9 94.6 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 13.7 15.7 16.0 3.0 96.0 94.7 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.9 10.7 1.2 77.4 74.8 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 14.4 17.0 16.6 3.1 96.2 95.1 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 12.0 12.6 13.7 1.7 86.0 83.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 10.6 12.4 11.4 2.5 94.1 92.9 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.8 17.5 3.5 97.2 96.4 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------