***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 15.0 15.7 16.8 2.1 83.9 78.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.9 16.6 1.9 80.3 75.4 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.7 17.0 2.1 84.5 79.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.7 13.9 1.7 80.0 75.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 13.2 13.8 14.5 1.9 83.5 78.3 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.7 11.6 1.6 82.4 77.2 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.7 16.6 1.9 80.2 75.3 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.5 11.4 1.4 78.2 73.8 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 14.2 14.9 14.7 1.9 85.5 79.9 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 14.0 14.5 12.6 1.6 80.6 75.8 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.4 13.7 1.7 82.3 77.2 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.5 12.4 1.5 80.2 75.8 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 13.5 14.2 12.5 1.7 83.4 78.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.7 14.4 1.7 82.9 77.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 15.0 15.6 15.4 1.7 82.8 77.3 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 14.3 15.0 13.2 1.7 82.8 77.6 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.8 16.3 1.7 78.2 73.3 13.4 14.2 15.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.6 11.9 1.6 80.7 75.6 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.6 16.7 2.0 82.8 77.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 8.5 8.8 9.7 1.4 77.9 73.3 7.0 7.6 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.3 15.0 16.0 1.9 84.7 79.3 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 14.5 15.1 16.5 1.9 81.3 76.0 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 14.7 15.6 16.7 2.2 86.4 80.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 14.5 15.2 14.3 1.8 83.7 78.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.2 15.5 1.9 81.7 76.7 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.5 11.9 1.7 82.2 77.3 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.7 16.2 2.0 82.5 77.3 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.6 14.3 1.6 81.1 75.8 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 11.5 11.9 11.1 1.5 79.6 74.9 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 15.3 16.0 16.8 2.0 81.8 76.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------