***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 14.8 15.6 17.1 1.9 93.4 88.5 13.5 14.0 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 14.8 15.8 17.0 1.8 91.3 86.3 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 16.4 17.6 17.3 1.9 93.9 89.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.3 14.2 1.4 89.5 84.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 13.0 13.8 14.6 1.6 92.3 88.2 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 11.9 12.4 11.8 1.2 88.3 83.8 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 14.8 15.6 17.0 1.8 90.8 85.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 6.8 7.4 11.7 1.3 88.2 84.3 5.5 6.0 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.9 14.8 1.6 93.6 89.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 14.0 14.6 12.9 1.4 90.3 86.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 13.9 14.5 13.8 1.4 90.7 86.7 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 12.0 12.5 12.6 1.3 89.1 85.3 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 13.3 13.8 12.3 1.1 87.0 82.6 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 14.8 15.7 14.7 1.6 92.2 87.5 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 15.1 15.8 15.4 1.4 89.8 84.6 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 14.3 14.9 13.2 1.3 88.8 84.5 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 15.0 15.8 16.8 1.8 90.4 85.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 12.7 13.5 12.1 1.4 90.3 86.3 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 14.6 15.5 17.1 2.0 93.1 88.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 8.4 8.9 9.8 1.2 87.5 83.5 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.9 16.1 1.6 92.7 88.2 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 14.2 15.1 16.9 2.0 92.6 87.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 14.2 15.4 17.1 2.2 95.9 91.9 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 14.4 15.5 14.5 1.6 93.2 89.0 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 14.2 14.9 15.6 1.7 91.5 86.7 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 12.7 13.2 11.8 1.2 87.3 83.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 14.4 15.2 16.3 1.7 92.1 87.2 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 13.0 13.6 14.4 1.3 88.5 83.3 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 11.1 11.7 11.4 1.3 89.7 85.7 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 15.0 15.9 17.2 1.9 92.2 87.3 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------