***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 26.6 29.8 28.3 4.4 96.1 94.9 22.7 24.1 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 27.0 30.0 28.8 4.8 95.8 94.7 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 26.8 29.8 28.5 4.5 95.4 94.3 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 19.1 20.6 23.5 2.8 89.0 87.2 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 27.0 29.3 25.7 3.6 93.1 91.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 25.1 25.8 21.6 2.1 81.8 80.5 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 26.5 29.4 28.5 4.5 95.4 94.2 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 14.6 15.9 22.6 3.0 87.3 86.1 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 26.5 29.1 26.9 4.0 94.5 93.3 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 26.1 27.7 24.4 3.5 90.4 89.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 26.5 28.4 25.7 3.5 91.4 90.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 25.4 26.7 23.7 3.0 88.7 87.3 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 26.7 28.1 24.5 2.9 88.4 87.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 26.6 29.3 27.0 4.4 94.5 93.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 26.8 28.2 26.1 2.7 90.5 88.3 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 27.3 28.8 24.6 3.0 89.2 88.0 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 26.3 29.5 28.9 5.1 96.6 95.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 25.8 27.4 23.5 3.5 90.1 88.9 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 26.5 29.8 29.0 5.0 96.6 95.7 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 21.1 22.2 20.6 2.9 86.0 84.8 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 26.7 29.2 27.9 4.1 94.6 93.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 26.9 30.6 29.0 5.4 97.1 96.1 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 26.8 30.9 29.4 5.6 98.0 97.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 26.2 28.5 26.7 4.2 93.6 92.5 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 26.6 29.1 26.6 3.9 94.4 92.9 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 26.2 27.7 22.8 3.0 89.3 88.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 26.4 29.1 27.4 4.1 94.9 93.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 26.8 27.9 24.4 2.5 87.9 86.0 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 20.9 22.5 22.6 3.4 89.2 88.0 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 26.8 29.7 28.7 4.6 95.5 94.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------