***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 28.2 28.8 27.8 1.8 74.1 67.1 25.3 26.7 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 27.5 27.9 27.7 1.7 71.7 65.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 27.6 28.2 28.1 1.9 73.8 67.0 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.0 21.3 25.4 1.6 72.1 65.3 18.2 19.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.1 28.6 26.0 1.7 72.8 66.0 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 25.6 26.7 23.0 1.2 67.4 61.4 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 26.2 27.4 27.5 1.6 70.4 64.1 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 15.2 16.3 23.7 1.3 67.7 62.2 13.3 14.8 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.5 28.1 26.4 1.8 73.6 66.6 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.3 27.6 24.7 1.6 70.4 64.2 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 26.8 28.2 25.5 1.6 71.4 64.9 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 25.9 27.0 24.9 1.4 68.7 63.0 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 27.0 28.0 24.0 1.2 66.9 61.6 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.2 27.2 25.6 1.4 67.5 61.6 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 28.6 29.3 26.4 1.8 75.1 67.2 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.6 28.9 24.9 1.5 70.1 63.9 25.7 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 26.8 27.2 27.5 1.6 71.0 64.6 24.0 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 25.7 26.9 24.1 1.5 68.7 62.8 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 27.0 27.5 27.9 1.9 73.4 66.7 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 21.4 22.2 21.2 1.0 64.3 59.8 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 27.7 28.2 27.3 1.8 73.3 66.4 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.7 27.4 1.7 71.9 65.4 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 27.4 28.1 27.9 2.0 75.1 68.0 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 25.9 27.3 25.8 1.6 70.8 64.3 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 27.8 28.4 26.1 1.8 74.1 66.8 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 26.6 27.9 24.3 1.5 71.2 64.8 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.8 26.8 1.7 72.9 66.0 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.8 29.2 25.6 1.6 71.8 64.9 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.1 22.1 22.9 1.2 66.1 60.9 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 27.2 27.6 27.7 1.7 72.0 65.6 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------