***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 27.2 28.7 27.7 2.5 92.1 85.6 25.0 25.9 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 26.9 28.0 27.8 2.5 89.6 83.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 27.0 28.3 27.9 2.5 90.9 84.9 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 19.7 20.6 24.5 1.9 87.1 80.9 18.0 18.7 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 27.3 28.4 25.6 2.2 89.9 84.0 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 25.6 26.3 22.4 1.5 84.7 78.7 23.9 24.6 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 26.6 27.7 27.6 2.4 88.9 82.1 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.6 23.0 1.7 83.7 78.2 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 26.8 28.0 26.3 2.3 91.0 85.0 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 26.4 27.2 24.3 2.0 86.8 81.3 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 27.0 27.9 25.3 2.1 88.6 82.9 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 25.8 26.5 24.2 1.8 85.7 80.1 24.2 24.8 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 27.1 27.8 24.0 1.8 85.8 80.4 25.2 25.9 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 26.6 27.5 25.7 2.1 86.8 80.5 24.6 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 27.7 28.6 26.2 2.0 89.6 82.5 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 27.7 28.6 24.6 1.9 87.5 81.7 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 26.4 27.7 27.6 2.6 89.8 82.4 24.3 25.1 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 25.8 26.5 23.4 1.9 84.8 79.3 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 26.5 27.8 28.0 2.7 91.1 84.9 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 21.3 21.7 20.6 1.4 79.7 74.6 19.5 20.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 27.0 28.2 27.2 2.4 90.7 84.5 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 26.9 28.3 27.6 2.7 90.6 83.4 24.7 25.6 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 26.8 28.4 28.1 3.0 93.7 87.6 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 26.2 27.2 25.7 2.2 88.2 82.3 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 27.1 28.4 26.0 2.3 91.2 84.5 25.0 25.9 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 26.5 27.4 23.6 2.0 88.9 83.1 24.8 25.5 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 26.6 27.8 26.8 2.4 91.0 84.2 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 27.6 28.4 25.0 1.8 87.0 80.5 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 21.1 21.7 22.4 1.7 82.6 77.3 19.2 20.0 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 26.8 27.9 27.8 2.5 89.8 83.5 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------