***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.7 10.7 10.0 60.2 45.3 36.1 7.1 12.4 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 6.3 8.5 7.3 49.9 41.9 35.2 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 6.7 10.7 8.6 55.3 43.1 35.3 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 8.0 9.9 8.4 46.2 36.2 31.6 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.3 9.2 9.7 57.9 43.4 37.3 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 10.2 12.2 10.8 56.1 38.5 33.5 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.2 7.8 52.1 43.2 36.0 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.7 20.6 13.6 65.2 43.7 38.6 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.8 9.8 12.2 71.9 50.3 41.6 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.3 12.0 13.8 65.8 44.9 39.4 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.8 9.7 56.3 42.4 35.8 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.8 12.1 10.9 64.4 45.6 38.7 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.0 9.6 8.0 46.0 36.1 30.8 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.8 15.8 13.3 64.8 46.5 39.7 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 5.2 6.0 37.2 35.4 30.1 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.5 8.4 8.4 51.9 39.6 33.2 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.9 10.3 8.7 62.6 47.5 40.2 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.3 15.2 16.1 72.1 47.8 42.8 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.9 7.4 49.9 41.7 35.4 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.0 15.8 18.2 80.2 51.9 46.8 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 6.7 11.4 10.5 65.8 47.8 38.7 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.9 11.5 8.5 62.3 47.8 39.7 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.7 8.5 53.6 42.6 36.6 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.3 14.8 12.1 64.7 45.7 39.4 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.6 7.9 8.9 48.1 39.3 32.4 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.2 8.9 53.3 40.3 35.6 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.9 8.8 9.7 54.5 42.2 34.5 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.4 8.0 8.4 48.0 38.4 33.0 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.6 18.9 16.8 74.6 49.1 43.9 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 5.8 8.6 7.3 48.6 41.3 34.0 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------