***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.8 25.9 20.7 113.9 67.7 55.2 8.0 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.4 27.0 19.0 120.7 70.1 59.1 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 19.8 26.2 19.3 111.5 66.6 56.8 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 18.5 28.1 22.2 124.8 71.0 62.0 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.3 22.1 20.6 116.1 68.3 59.0 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.2 22.0 25.5 117.1 68.0 59.1 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.6 22.3 18.8 119.1 69.6 58.0 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 35.8 40.5 28.1 142.7 76.1 67.2 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.0 23.8 22.5 120.7 69.7 59.7 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.9 26.2 27.5 136.0 74.1 64.7 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.8 24.2 23.6 129.1 71.8 62.6 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 20.1 22.0 24.3 135.3 73.9 65.5 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 21.2 22.1 23.8 124.3 70.9 63.4 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 33.4 33.4 26.1 120.1 69.5 60.5 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.2 18.4 19.1 114.4 68.1 56.4 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.7 17.9 21.7 117.8 68.5 59.3 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.1 31.2 18.2 118.1 69.5 57.9 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 25.7 27.9 30.4 135.6 73.8 63.9 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.4 30.4 19.2 120.6 69.9 59.9 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 23.4 27.8 30.8 145.3 76.7 67.0 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.0 21.1 20.7 112.4 67.3 58.0 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.6 26.6 19.0 119.2 69.5 59.0 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.3 23.9 20.5 123.6 70.8 61.9 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.9 29.9 25.1 121.2 70.0 60.6 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 18.5 24.8 22.7 112.4 66.9 57.3 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 17.5 18.2 23.2 123.2 70.6 62.0 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 19.0 25.8 22.9 115.2 67.9 55.8 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.0 17.6 20.8 123.6 70.7 59.3 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 33.4 36.8 31.6 135.4 74.3 64.1 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 21.0 26.6 18.6 113.7 67.7 57.4 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------