***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.5 13.0 12.8 76.3 53.8 40.2 5.4 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 17.2 12.6 83.9 57.6 45.7 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.3 22.9 13.8 84.8 57.6 43.4 8.6 17.4 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 9.8 19.2 13.9 72.9 53.0 40.8 9.7 17.5 28.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.6 13.2 12.9 73.6 52.8 41.0 6.6 12.0 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.6 13.8 16.9 77.5 52.9 40.9 6.1 12.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.7 14.5 12.3 81.3 56.6 44.7 6.3 11.7 19.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.1 19.2 15.3 78.8 53.7 43.4 10.2 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.5 15.7 13.2 72.0 51.3 40.2 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.6 21.4 15.5 75.9 52.6 41.9 11.5 19.9 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.6 13.8 12.1 72.2 51.4 40.0 7.8 13.2 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.8 11.3 13.1 75.0 52.2 41.5 5.8 10.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.2 12.9 14.5 76.3 53.8 42.3 5.9 11.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.9 19.6 15.8 74.9 52.1 43.0 10.2 18.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.5 11.9 68.7 52.4 39.2 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.1 9.6 12.9 71.6 51.1 39.8 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.7 16.1 13.7 93.8 61.5 47.8 6.1 11.3 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.6 16.9 17.5 79.5 53.0 43.4 8.3 15.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.4 20.9 12.9 85.1 57.8 45.0 9.0 16.4 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 17.7 18.3 86.7 56.1 47.5 6.6 14.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.0 15.7 13.5 80.1 55.7 42.6 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.4 17.7 14.3 94.7 62.0 49.1 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.9 15.2 12.5 79.5 55.0 42.4 6.7 12.8 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.3 23.8 15.0 77.5 52.7 42.5 13.2 22.2 33.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.5 16.1 15.1 80.1 55.6 41.6 7.4 13.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.3 13.2 80.5 55.7 43.2 5.3 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.3 16.1 14.6 78.8 55.0 42.0 7.0 13.5 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.3 69.7 51.9 39.8 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.6 22.4 18.1 82.5 54.2 45.0 11.0 19.8 31.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.6 18.7 12.5 80.1 56.1 44.3 7.6 15.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------