***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.5 12.4 76.6 54.7 42.9 5.4 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.4 12.2 88.3 59.9 46.0 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.0 12.9 83.7 57.5 45.3 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.5 10.3 63.3 48.5 38.5 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.4 10.7 69.8 51.8 40.4 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.1 7.7 12.5 64.6 46.5 36.2 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.5 16.3 12.4 89.6 59.7 44.1 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.5 15.1 84.9 56.3 45.2 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.5 10.8 11.9 72.7 53.0 42.2 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.9 14.7 15.1 78.4 54.1 44.1 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.7 10.7 11.2 75.5 53.9 42.4 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.3 11.7 78.3 54.0 42.0 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.0 11.4 70.4 51.2 39.4 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.3 17.5 86.2 57.9 45.2 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.4 8.9 61.0 49.2 37.1 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.2 10.6 67.7 50.1 38.4 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.3 14.7 12.5 90.2 60.0 43.5 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 11.5 18.0 83.1 55.6 46.5 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.9 12.4 86.8 59.2 46.3 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.4 18.6 93.6 59.0 48.6 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.4 11.4 72.7 53.4 42.6 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.8 12.6 83.0 57.4 43.1 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.1 16.7 13.7 91.4 60.8 47.3 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.0 15.8 86.0 57.3 46.2 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.5 10.8 11.6 66.0 49.6 40.2 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 4.3 9.5 9.2 70.2 50.7 36.7 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 13.9 12.8 72.2 52.4 41.5 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.1 9.9 61.2 47.9 36.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.0 18.0 18.8 88.4 57.3 47.8 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.5 12.5 86.9 59.0 45.9 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------