***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 45.6 58.7 55.9 82.5 42.9 40.2 47.6 66.9 89.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 62.0 74.9 51.0 86.4 47.1 43.7 63.5 77.4 92.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 97.2 80.2 54.7 84.7 44.9 42.0 66.6 86.3 108.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 56.5 68.0 54.9 76.8 38.6 36.3 62.2 80.3 100.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 52.3 62.1 54.0 80.0 40.7 38.5 55.2 70.5 87.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 51.9 60.4 65.7 79.8 38.5 36.7 55.8 69.4 84.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 47.5 62.4 51.3 85.9 47.1 43.0 48.3 65.5 84.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 84.9 103.0 72.0 92.4 49.7 45.6 86.7 103.4 120.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 76.4 64.1 59.9 85.0 43.7 41.7 55.4 69.2 84.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 64.7 78.5 71.8 88.5 46.3 43.5 66.1 82.4 99.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 52.2 62.1 56.6 84.3 43.8 41.1 53.8 67.0 81.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 44.1 56.4 59.9 89.1 47.9 43.8 45.3 58.0 72.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 47.1 55.5 57.7 80.5 42.2 39.3 48.7 61.5 75.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 79.2 95.0 72.8 86.8 45.1 41.1 82.2 100.8 120.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 34.4 41.7 46.0 70.5 37.3 34.6 38.4 52.3 68.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 39.7 46.3 53.5 78.5 39.5 37.6 41.5 54.3 68.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 49.1 70.6 53.1 91.9 51.5 46.3 50.7 69.1 90.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 65.4 79.5 82.0 92.6 49.2 45.9 66.8 80.1 94.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 64.7 79.0 51.9 86.2 46.8 43.6 65.3 82.2 100.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 80.5 79.4 85.9 100.8 56.5 50.9 59.2 73.7 88.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 50.6 62.1 56.2 83.8 43.8 40.9 52.6 67.5 83.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 53.4 73.9 54.4 90.8 50.7 46.4 54.9 73.3 93.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 57.9 69.8 55.2 87.5 47.6 43.7 58.5 71.9 85.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 76.6 91.9 68.1 88.1 45.9 43.2 78.5 95.8 114.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 48.8 59.2 58.3 77.6 38.7 36.8 53.7 70.2 88.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 39.5 51.6 54.6 83.8 44.5 40.8 42.0 56.5 72.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 52.8 64.5 60.0 81.1 41.5 39.1 56.7 73.2 91.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 41.0 47.2 52.4 75.4 38.7 36.1 43.8 54.3 65.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 83.8 103.0 85.3 95.6 51.7 47.3 85.6 101.4 118.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 84.8 70.9 50.9 82.9 44.2 41.6 60.8 76.7 93.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------