***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 13.5 13.7 15.4 1.5 74.7 73.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 14.0 14.4 15.7 2.1 80.8 79.4 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.5 15.4 1.4 73.4 72.2 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 10.2 10.6 13.1 1.7 78.0 76.1 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.9 13.1 1.2 70.9 69.6 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 10.0 10.2 9.8 0.5 60.0 59.1 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 14.0 14.4 15.7 2.1 81.3 79.8 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 4.8 5.1 9.6 0.4 59.1 58.4 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 12.7 12.8 13.0 0.9 68.2 67.2 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 12.1 12.5 10.9 0.6 62.3 61.5 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 11.7 12.0 11.9 0.5 59.2 58.6 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 10.0 10.4 10.7 0.5 60.4 59.8 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.2 10.4 0.0 48.8 49.0 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 12.9 13.3 12.6 0.8 64.6 64.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 13.6 13.7 13.8 0.8 66.9 65.6 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.4 11.4 0.4 58.7 58.1 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 14.2 14.8 15.9 2.5 85.5 84.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 10.8 11.4 10.5 0.9 66.6 65.8 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 13.9 14.2 15.6 2.0 79.9 78.7 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 6.7 7.1 8.4 0.7 62.9 62.3 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.9 14.3 1.0 68.7 67.7 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 13.4 13.6 15.4 1.9 78.7 77.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 13.7 14.0 15.4 1.9 79.8 78.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.9 12.8 1.0 68.1 67.2 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.3 14.2 1.3 71.8 70.6 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 10.8 10.9 9.8 0.2 55.1 54.7 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.9 14.9 1.6 74.8 73.4 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.7 13.0 1.1 69.8 68.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 9.2 9.7 9.6 0.8 64.1 63.4 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 14.1 14.4 15.8 1.9 79.0 77.7 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------