***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 15.4 16.4 17.6 2.4 87.2 79.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 15.6 17.1 17.6 2.5 88.2 80.4 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 17.2 18.4 17.5 2.2 86.1 79.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.4 13.3 14.5 1.7 80.7 74.5 9.7 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.3 14.0 14.8 1.8 83.1 76.5 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.7 11.9 1.4 78.5 72.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 15.6 16.8 17.7 2.6 88.4 80.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 7.4 8.1 11.9 1.6 81.8 75.5 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 14.5 15.2 15.1 1.9 85.1 78.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 14.3 14.9 13.1 1.7 82.9 76.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.0 14.7 14.1 1.7 83.0 76.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.8 12.9 1.7 82.1 75.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.9 12.5 1.2 76.1 71.2 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.8 14.6 1.5 79.6 73.8 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.8 15.9 1.7 83.3 77.2 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 14.5 15.0 13.4 1.5 79.0 73.7 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 15.8 17.0 17.4 2.5 87.9 80.4 13.5 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.7 12.3 1.5 80.4 74.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 15.3 16.4 17.5 2.4 87.9 80.4 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 8.7 9.1 10.1 1.5 79.2 73.5 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.3 16.4 1.9 83.9 77.1 12.8 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.8 17.0 2.2 85.4 78.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 15.1 16.1 17.1 2.3 87.2 80.2 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.3 14.6 1.6 81.2 75.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.6 16.1 2.0 83.6 76.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.4 11.9 1.3 76.7 71.2 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 15.3 16.4 16.9 2.3 85.9 78.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.8 14.8 1.6 81.3 75.2 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 11.7 12.2 11.4 1.4 78.9 73.6 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 15.8 17.1 17.7 2.5 88.1 80.5 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------