***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 14.7 15.4 16.9 1.6 89.5 82.4 13.6 14.1 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 14.8 15.9 17.0 1.9 92.3 85.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 16.3 17.2 17.0 1.6 88.9 81.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 11.4 12.2 14.2 1.4 87.4 80.4 9.9 10.6 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 13.0 13.5 14.3 1.2 85.3 78.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 11.8 12.1 11.6 0.9 78.3 72.3 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 14.8 15.8 17.1 1.9 92.5 86.1 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.0 11.4 0.9 79.0 73.3 5.6 6.1 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.1 14.6 14.4 1.2 85.7 79.0 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 13.9 14.3 12.6 1.0 81.2 75.2 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.1 13.4 1.0 81.6 75.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.2 12.3 1.0 80.1 74.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.3 11.9 0.6 71.8 67.5 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.0 14.1 1.0 79.6 74.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.7 15.4 1.2 86.0 79.1 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.5 12.9 0.9 78.6 72.9 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 15.1 16.1 17.0 2.0 93.6 87.5 13.7 14.2 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.1 11.8 1.0 80.0 74.5 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 14.6 15.4 17.0 1.8 91.8 85.1 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.4 8.6 9.6 0.9 77.4 72.4 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 14.1 14.6 15.8 1.3 85.3 78.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 14.2 14.9 16.6 1.7 90.1 83.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 14.1 14.9 16.7 1.7 90.9 84.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 14.4 14.9 14.1 1.1 82.4 76.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.6 15.4 1.3 85.3 78.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.7 12.9 11.6 0.8 76.8 71.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 14.2 14.9 16.2 1.6 88.7 81.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.5 14.5 1.2 85.5 78.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 11.0 11.2 11.0 0.9 78.1 73.0 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 14.9 15.9 17.1 1.8 91.4 84.6 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------